How tariffs may impact your yarn hobbies

A logical analysis without the usual internet clickbait nonsense

This gorgeous shawl is made with American-grown and spun yarn. It won’t have a tariff, but the dyes that create this cream and silver color, with its tiny gold speckles, already cost a lot more than they did a few months ago.

I was deeply amused by a recent YouTube video assuring hand knitters that tariffs would not impact their indie yarn because the largest supplier of base yarn to indie dyers had promised to absorb the cost of tariffs.

While the latter part of this claim is technically true, the clickbait-style video was less of an economic analysis and more of an attempt to “keep politics out of knitting,” which is nearly always a way to pander to maga- and Republican knitters and keep them safe from our justified, liberal rage at how they voted for their pocketbooks but threw so many other people under the bus.

The past few weeks also contained some pretty seismic industry news: Brooklyn Tweed yarn is ceasing to produce yarn, and Jimmy Beans Wool (which is an umbrella company that includes madeleinetosh hand-dyed yarn, Simply Shetland imports of Shetland wool, Dream in Color, and more brands) was purchased by a private equity firm. (Private equity is widely acknowledged to signal the demise of a company that it purchases since it squeezes that company for every ounce of profit, often to the point of undermining the viability of the organization.) More quietly, last year, a prominent US-based wool mill also signaled trouble: Kraemer’s filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization.

Since I studied economics in college and continue to frequently read and learn about how money, market forces, and consumerism impact our lives, I’d like to offer you a more rounded view of what may happen with yarn prices and the prices of the tools we knitters and crocheters use.

1. Yarn prices will increase, but not directly as much as the tariffs.

Yarn is made all over the world, and right now, Tr*umpian tariffs are on nearly all countries. However, there are many exceptions and carve-outs. My favorite Canadian mill happily discovered last month that they are exempt from tariffs because they are certified under the trade agreement that replaced NAFTA.

If it applies at all, a tariff is only on the base yarn’s cost. An indie dyer might sell a skein of yarn for $30, but the base might only cost $9. If the US imposes a 10% tariff, that’s an extra 90 cents in cost. So, not as much as you might think.

2. American-made yarn will get more expensive for a different reason.

The American yarn industry has been imperiled for a long time. Clara Parkes, a wool expert, wrote about this trend in her book, Vanishing Fleece, in 2021.

With tariffs (or the threat of them) on foreign-made yarns, there has already been greater demand for US-made yarns. Which you might think was a good thing; however, the US market cannot pivot very quickly to produce more yarn (quite simply, we’d need a lot more sheep).

I dye many American-grown and spun bases because I prefer selling and using yarns with a small economic footprint, and I have already seen one base uncharacteristically sell out. Based on decades of reliable demand data, my mill chooses a well-calibrated quantity of this base to spin each year. But then there were tariffs and a rush, and it sold out. My mill can’t get a new amount of yarn superwashed until later this year.

Supply chains are only durable so long as supply and demand trends remain relatively stable. Think about the scarcity of toilet paper in the pandemic, when demand rocketed sharply upwards.

I think it’s safe to assume the cost of American-made yarn will increase because demand is increasing.

3. The price of tools (needles, hooks, stitch markers, etc.) will increase.

American manufacturing of all kinds, not just wool, has been on the decline for decades. Most stitching tools—from knitting needles to crochet hooks to embroidery hoops—are manufactured in China. These prices will certainly increase because of tariffs.

If you need to add a set of needles or hooks to your tool collection, my advice is to buy them now from a store’s existing stock rather than wait. I’ve done this myself and have rounded out my collection of needles with a few cable and needle sizes that I’ve been meaning to buy, as well as a set of extra blocking pins.

4. Price increases for indie-dyed yarn will be gradual, but they are coming.

I’ve heard from the two largest suppliers of indie-dyed yarn bases that our current yarn costs will likely stay stable. That said, there have already been annual increases in supply and labor costs for the past few years because of inflation, and many yarn dyers haven’t taken these into account in their pricing, particularly given the softening economy. In addition, yarn dyers use other inputs to create their yarn—like dyes—which are already dramatically increasing in cost.

My best estimate is that most indie dyers and very small yarn companies will start to slowly increase prices to account for the increased cost of inputs and general inflation.

5. Yarn brands spun in China will have sharp price increases, most often at your LYS.

Many yarn brands are spun in China. Even distinctly European brands—like Scheepjes wool—are made in China. (Spinning is considered a transformative process, even if the wool is grown elsewhere.)

I’ve heard of local yarn shops facing dramatic cost increases in recent shipments in the past few weeks. I would imagine that many of the large-brand yarns that are in yarn shops will ultimately be impacted by tariffs, as worldwide manufacturing has long been shifting, away from countries where labor costs are relatively high (like the US and Europe, which might have a lower or no tariff) and toward countries where labor costs are lower or where there are fewer labor or regulations (like China, where tariffs are higher).

6. All of this might change on a dime because chaos and confusion are the only things we can count on right now.

If Tr*mp’s first term showed us anything, it’s that chaos, confusion, change, and cruelty are the things we can count on.

My advice: See the big picture, but don’t stay too long there.

The alarm bells are ringing here in the US, and it’s not because yarn may get more expensive.

Being concerned only about ourselves or the people in our circle who might be impacted or voting narrowly because of a single issue is one reason we are now facing bleak news and brutal policies on every front.

We need to—each of us—see how it’s all connected.

But don’t stay too long in the big picture, lest you despair. Find a niche that matters to you—abortion rights, climate change, keeping people safe from ICE. Know that there are so many others out here who will cover the other niches. Donate the money you can. Support the folks who are speaking out. Speak quiet, resolute truth to the folks in your life who are being ostriches. And keep stitching and calming your heart.

This era we are in? It’s going to take a while to change.

Yet, something else is true here, too: We are the makers. We know about the slow and steady course. Knit more. Comfort more. Care more. Stretch yourself to do more, and also remember to pull back when you need to and be gentle with yourself.

Remember: This coming Thursday, the Swap Shop for Handknits will open for our second-ever swap! Paid subscribers will be able to claim a beautiful new handknit for only the cost of shipping!